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In-depth analysis: If China's manufacturing industry does not upgrade, 70% will close down!

Date: 2016-04-21
Views: 94

In 2011, Jobs had a famous dialogue with Obama. Obama asked: 'How can I make Iphone production in the US?' Jobs' reply is very simple: 'Those jobs can't come back.' Although Apple's production line has moved back to the United States, the overall share is small and looks more symbolic than the actual meaning. . Jobs’s attitude is intriguing. We can’t help but think: Why didn’t Apple relocate the factory from China to the United States? Is it just because China’s labor force is cheap?

I think it's not just because the labor is cheap, we often overlook the fact that China has the complete industrial chain necessary for the production of Apple mobile phones. In this production chain, a series of supporting processing and production, from production to processing, to some core components, including screens and mobile phone cases, are completed in China. For Apple, it is difficult to move some of the major factories back to the United States, but it is difficult to move the entire industry chain back.

Specifically, Apple's largest mobile phone screen manufacturer is a Chinese company called Lansi Technology. This is a very inspirational company that was listed on A-shares last year. Lansi Technology is mainly engaged in the processing and production of mobile phone screens. Apple chose it because it is the best in the world, not only the best craftsmanship, but also the most efficient; they not only use the world's top equipment, but also hired masters and doctors from Berkeley.

In addition, China has a large number of engineers, which is an indispensable part of the Apple industry chain. Take Foxconn as an example. We know that Foxconn is OEM for Apple, but it often ignores some details. For every Foxconn factory, Apple will send a large number of engineers to enter. There are tens of thousands of high-quality Chinese engineers at Apple's factory in China. Although production has been highly automated, these engineers are committed to quality control and process improvement at every stage.

For Apple, it is difficult to find high-quality engineers in China like China, which is largely due to the characteristics of American education. University education in the United States is guided by elite education, and it mainly trains core talents in the fields of high technology, law, and business. So Obama later developed a new plan to strengthen the community colleges in the United States.

On the whole, although China's manufacturing industry is generally low, in terms of 3C industry (computer, communication, consumer electronics), the world's largest and most complete supply chain is distributed in China. In this context, we believe that there are great opportunities, that is, industrial automation and industrial upgrading.

Why should we upgrade the industry?

First of all, China’s demographic dividend has disappeared. Last year, BCG (Boston Consulting Group of the United States) released a report called 'The Big Move of the Global Manufacturing Industry.' The report pointed out that China's manufacturing costs have been quite close to the United States. Among the top 25 economies in terms of global exports, the United States is 100, and China’s manufacturing cost index is 96. The meaning is: the same product, the cost of manufacturing in the United States is 1 US dollar, then the need for 0.96 US dollars in China, the gap between the two sides has been greatly reduced.

In addition, due to China's 30-year one-child policy in the past, our labor supply has actually reached a peak a few years ago. Although the National People's Congress began to enact legislation to encourage fertility last year, I personally think that the actual effect of the policy may not be as expected. At the current stage, the cost of raising a child is too high for the average middle class. Most middle-class people don't have much attachment to fertility, and they don't have enough motivation, and it takes a long period of time for new students to grow into qualified labor.

Many Chinese companies will face the labor shortage after the Spring Festival. In fact, the labor shortage has begun to fertilize a few years ago. As costs increase, profits become thinner, and exchange rate fluctuations add additional risk. Looking back over the past few years, whether it is the Yangtze River Delta or the Pearl River Delta, a large number of manufacturing companies are closing down.

In summary, the current situation is extremely severe. If we continue to continue the so-called population-intensive processing model, our company will completely lose its core competitiveness. Wu Xiaobo said last year that if Chinese industrial manufacturing companies do not upgrade, 50% of enterprises will fail. My attitude is even more pessimistic. If these companies do not upgrade in the next few years, I think 70% or even 80% will go bankrupt.

Investment case: high-end CNC machine tools

Although China is the world's largest manufacturing country, China is almost blank in the production of high-end CNC machine tools. Whether it is four-axis or six-axis, it relies heavily on imported equipment from Germany and Japan.

However, technological powers such as Germany and Japan have very strict technical controls on China. Take the six-axis CNC machine as an example. Their protection of their technology has reached a very extreme level - they will install a vertical gravity sensor on the machine that we sell to us. In other words, the entire machine will stop working once the device is moved without their permission.

The purpose of the Western technology powers is clear, preventing both China from carrying out possible technical plagiarism and preventing China from using CNC machine tools in the military industry. In theory, high-end CNC machines can be used to produce propellers for aircraft carriers or fighter jets and rotors for engine propulsion. Western technology blockades against China have always been very strict, and today it is difficult for us to produce high-end CNC machine tools with European and American technology standards.

Two years ago, Changzhou invested in a company specializing in high-end CNC machine tools, named Changzhou Despeed. They started from the core parts and components of CNC machine tools, and worked hard to produce four-axis and six-axis industrial CNC machine tools today, so that the efficiency and process of many production and processing equipment can be greatly improved. Upgrade. Its technical accuracy has also been recognized by some domestic manufacturers.

We all think that electric vehicles like Tesla may not fit the actual situation in China. China has a large population, road traffic is congested, road infrastructure is relatively backward, and charging facilities are not perfect. There are single-family villas in the ordinary middle class in the United States, and charging equipment is easy to install. However, for most Chinese consumers, even if they can afford Tesla, I am afraid they will face many restrictions. Charging equipment in ordinary residential areas is difficult to be modified, and up to 2-3 charging piles can be installed.

In addition, as far as domestic future long-distance transportation is concerned, I think it may be replaced by Uber and driverless mode. In fact, you only need to care about going from point A to point B. You don't have to own a car. Just as we are taking the high-speed train from Beijing to Shanghai today, I only need to determine the time for the high-speed train to start, without having to own the high-speed rail itself. For short trips of 15-20 km radius, especially for young people, newer, more convenient, electric and new vehicles may be more suitable for this travel demand.

The micro electric vehicle that Li Xiang is doing is just enough to meet this travel demand. His electric car is smaller than the Mercedes-Benz Smart and is also convenient for parking. A normal parking space can stop 4-5 cars. In addition, the battery can be plugged and unplugged, which can be easily taken home or charged in the office, just as convenient as charging the Iphone. This kind of miniature electric car may subvert the original transportation, no need to go to the gas station, and no need to supercharge the pile. It can run 80 kilometers in a few degrees. In this context, parking problems, road congestion problems, and pollution problems can all be solved. This is not only the application of domestic industrial upgrading, but also the practice of upgrading domestic consumption.

Outlook and hope

We have always had an established impression of Chinese manufacturing: in the middle and low end of the global industrial division of labor, mainly relying on cheap labor for OEM production, lack of core technology, low added value of products, so that there is no core competition in the global market. force. For a long time, the essence of Chinese manufacturing was Chinese processing, not Chinese R&D and design.

Most companies may still be in a relatively pessimistic phase, but what we really care about is those that really hope to contribute to China's industrial upgrading. China's new generation of science and technology entrepreneurs are no longer self-sufficient and defensive. From the first day of entrepreneurship, they are based on the global market like Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. Despite the great risks and challenges, there may be many of them falling down, but I think they are the hope of China's future.

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